I believe that the enemies have finished digging their own graves. No authority can be imagined to trash itself out of society stronger than what the Eritrean regime has been doing to itself in view of our people. The regime continues making mistakes refusing to learn from experience to the point of forcing citizens to only withdraw a maximum of 10,000 Nakfa from the bank at a time and stash a maximum of 20,000 Nakfa at home. With the current strength of the currency in the market (“65 nakfa/dollar”) commonsense says that the limit of withdrawal far a person may be about 154 US Dollars while that of possession, about 308 US Dollars; one considered a criminal otherwise by the absurd regime’s convoluted understanding of Finance and Economics. Simply, a neighborhood cannot survive under this ridiculous burden let alone a society. Jailing the head of the Eritrean bank will not solve the disaster the dictator created by destructively interfering in everything he does not fully understand thinking he knows them all. The out of control situation clearly testifies that the gangster regime not only has totally failed to run the society with defensible management capacity but also disqualified itself from being a legitimate dictatorship by the universal socio-political standards of classification. No one but we Eritreans must clean the debris! Yet, we are not ready to convince the world that we can take care of our political business after its disposal.

Once again, we need to clearly understand what we have to do to dislodge the dictatorship out of post. We need to know how much of the distance between humiliation and freedom we have so far covered and how much more we have to travel the journey from here on to reach the destination. We need to be practical about what we really have at hand to concretely materialize in reversing the situation beyond our people’s obvious readiness for change.

We need to ask what will happen to our oppressors, should the UN find the dictator guilty of crimes against humanity in June or July, 2016. We need to logically approximate how the anticipated UN verdict will affect the dictator and the people in order to carry out our collective role in the dynamics. We further need to be realistic as to how far the UN will go to help our situation beyond passing the verdict on the dictator’s criminological compulsion and how his relationship with the West will be then after.

I tend to understand the present Eritrea’s overall socio-political equation as;

Where do we stand in view of our mobilization, humanitarian and political issues at this spot in the fight? I am forced to discuss these issues with humble resentment that most of the oppositions (political parties) have neutralized their importance by their own partial and opportunistic jurisdiction. They have exchanged our cause of freedom for their narrow interests and personal frictions, thus self-nullified from the equation to this magnitude of unjustified stagnation. They have severely damaged their importance to the Eritrean people misplacing the trust they enjoyed for about 16 years as of 1999 through their extra-dull misrepresentation. Although a small portion of the opposition camp composed of our minority groups may be genuinely fighting for freedom, the fact remains that they could not get a chance to change the situation at equal leadership level of the relationship with the most dominant political parties in the game. They are literally dead in determination and spirit and of course disconnected from the struggle for us to bypass the stalemate to the next layer of consciousness regarding our time sensitive critical condition. I am walking away wishing them good luck in their personal lives from here on while focusing on the real activities on the table.

At the moment, the Diaspora mobilization effort appears successful producing massive turnout in the last major demonstrations (Geneva, Israel, Ethiopia and New York City), thanks to the hardworking elements of the struggle specially the demo.archive.assenna.community. Second, although many scattered activities may be going on in the opposition camp, reality states that we are today confronted with two specific issues towards our freedom considering the successful mobilization factor out of the way:humanitarian and political. It is clear that the importance of a united front composed of the two aspects of the struggle can rectify the problem using the highly mobilized Diaspora as the anchor of the struggle in the background. Both are necessary for victory and they must be developed in parallel most preferably in at least semi-integrated arrangement.

Looking at the matter carefully, I feel like we have a strong humanitarian case against the dictator that is practically going on at the UN forum by the gallant determination of our representatives in that regard. Thank you very much for the outstanding achievement! But we only have theoretical approach to the political component of the matter. Nothing has been done so far here beyond mere theoretical entertainment, the best entertainer of the moment being OUR VOICE in my judgment through its tantalizing bottom up strategy of unification. I consider this strategy of unification as something scientific that can be reduced to practice by our Diaspora community. It is the best strategy of unification in this struggle and the only one we have on the table in my opinion. The theory appears more mass-based compared to other undisclosed and localized elements’ of the struggle (MEDREK et al) that perform political activities without a defined strategy and involving the mass. The recent meeting in Kenya by our Medrek family with the most reactionary forces of the struggle without the leaders of our minority groups in or out of EDA does not sound good to me. I believe all forms of struggle against the dictatorship are welcome but only if they were impartial. I hope Medrek et al will equally comprise all opposition parties in the next effort to impact the situation but I did not appreciate their recent Kenya effort that appears to have been limited to ELF and EPLF veterans whose exceptional importance in the society has been liquidated as a result of the Eritrean independence and their unacceptable dormancy in this struggle. Every Eritrean group in the opposition camp is today equally important in this fight for democracy, so then deserves equal respect from all justice seeking Eritreans. What Medrek should have done instead was involving all leaders in the opposition camp and most importantly, trying to work with OUR VOICE if the group practically exists. Eritrean intellectuals cannot afford to work for the common goal in segmentation. Therefore, the priority is for every group to aspire collecting the cream of the society in one camp in order to navigate the political process by which secular democracy comes to Eritrea. Our intellectuals have no responsibility to unite the political parties that should organize themselves for election; only to practically reduce an acceptable strategy and facilitate the process of democracy upon and with them.

Unfortunately, we are dearly paying for the political misadventures of our intellectual community. Whether the drift is taking place because of lack of initiative from each group or arrogance is something the members know but we cannot move forward as such and the difference must be narrowed down with humble initiative from both directions for the collective objective to work. Most importantly, Medrek et al must show material strategy in writing to attract us to their political philosophy. We already know OUR VOICE’s BOTTOM UP strategy of unification, what is Medrek’s! They need to clearly tell us their strategy immediately for us to choose what to follow; adopt OUR VOICE’s strategy and be willing to work with the group in integration, otherwise! We cannot afford to have two intellectual groups that claim to have no interest in political power nor can we understand why they cannot work as a unit if their mission is only to facilitate democratic process in the country.
I encourage Medrek et al to continue the struggle most preferably with transformed and inclusive mentality but I don’t think working with the most dominant political parties minus the parties that represent our minority groups will work in my opinion specially without openly condemning and reversing EDA’s and Bayto’s unjust verdict against the Kunama party in breach of its freedom of speech on the Awate controversy.

In any case, our current socio-political equation looks like this;

I may have been flirting with OUR VOICE’s strategy of unification but we don’t have an organized political entity capable of replacing the regime though we havepractical mobilization and humanitarian grounds at this spot in time. We are a decisive element (political) short to make it in this situation and we should have no doubt that we cannot succeed with theoretical political entertainment alone for itcannot replace reality. It appears, though that the two elements of the struggle (humanitarian and political) can solve the problem if they work in full or semi integration with their respective autonomy intact. But I wonder if the navigating groups in the front line of the fight ever had any contact with each other to discuss this issue and carry out the task together for a strong showing at the UN eight months from now. I also wonder if there has ever been any connection between MEDREK et al and OUR VOICE on the subject of solidifying a unified intellectual voice for our society’s question of freedom and democracy!

I don’t know the answers but I strongly resent our situation, otherwise! I consider failing to do this as devastating to our cause of freedom, yet even though Medrek et al did not yet expose its strategy in paper and OUR VOICE is still in its theoretical phase far behind in essence and efficiency compared to our representatives in the mobilization and humanitarian fields that already have practically accomplished something precious as vividly witnessed in this experience.

What may a UN verdict on Afwerki’s crimes against humanity in favor of the people do in the situation? Certainly a lot but not to the point!

1)      It will further isolate the loser, confining him to live only in Eritrea with all his power intact. He will safely live like the criminal Bashir does in his country. I believe the UN will stop at that point of the impact leaving the rest for the Eritrean people to accomplish. The relationship between the west and Afwerki will still be business oriented where the west will continue exploiting our gold and more knowing our share will be banked in the dictator’s pocket. This is what they are doing with dictator Bashir of North Sudan.

2)      With a lot more production (gold, potash, etc) in the way, the west will not gamble on Afwerki’s dictatorship without a dependable political contender, thus will continue verbally antagonizing with him while practically supporting him for the sake of the resources. He has the chance to sell our resources as cheap as possible to chill them down and they will take it happily, yet he would still have enough of it to stash in personal accounts.

3)      Considering the political void created by the division of Eritreans in the opposition camp with some of the political parties still insisting on ethnic and religious politics, the west will eventually grow to support the dictator in contrast giving him the chance to continue his power for its own interest especially if the dictator changes his ways. The longer we fail to fill the political gap the more we give him the chance of survival and normalization with the west.

4)      Remember that the west does not want to see instability in our country like in Yemen, Libya, Syria, etc. It will stick with him not only for its economic interests but also for regional stability issues in this situation. This is so because it cannot have confidence on the opposition that has so far failed to show material proof of its capacity to replace the regime with Secular Democracy.

In my petit intelligence, Afwerki with all his problems with the UN is satisfactorily delivering the two most essential interests of the west (economic and stability) for him to survive the political turmoil with its pretentiously direct support. Even beyond, he is in a far better position to politically survive the situation because he has at least maintained the integration of the country minus any other force that threatens western interest in the region. He is cooperating well indirectly helping the west against the extremists in Yemen through the Saudi-Egyptian connection. The presence of foreign forces (pro west) in Assab currently attacking the Yemenis extremists should then work to his advantage in view of the west.

At the moment where the planet is disturbed by extremism and terrorism all over the place, Afwerki’s solidarity with Saudi Arabia and Egypt against the Yemenis extremists stands more attractive to the west than the ethnically and religiously affiliated political parties in the opposition camp (EDA). Neither the west nor the UN can support the Eritrean resistance beyond a certain level unless it outshines the Afwerki regime in these aspects (economic interest of the west, integral stability of the country, cooperation against the extremism and terrorism, regional stability, etc). Reality says that our resistance as it stands today cannot guarantee better accommodation of the west’s interest in these categories. It thus cannot attract better attention from, beyond the humanitarian aspect of the equation, meaning that the west cannot depend on the divided, religiously and ethnically polluted opposition parties and risk its interests by removing Afwerki directly or indirectly just for the heck of it without an organized political receiver.

All this means that our immediate future as Eritreans (freedom and justice) depends on how we POLITICALLY prepare ourselves for the next year’s UN meeting on Afwerki’s verdict on crimes against humanity eight months from now. Our political appearance in parallel with our already successful humanitarian wing determines the immediate destiny of the Eritrean people vis-à-vis the dictator! We then need to be aware of what we POLITICALLY can do between today and the next UN activity in 2016 to dramatically influence the golden opportunity towards our objective of freedom and justice. The Eritrean people should never miss this extraordinary opportunity needless saying that time is against us, with only 8 months at hand to make it. I hope OUR VOICE and Medrek et al will work with this decisive responsibility in mind but there is no doubt that they can collectively use the occasion to at least introduce themselves to the world as a unit and their mission with a preliminary material proof if not a complete material.

I wish our intellectuals encapsulated within and the Eritrean people in general a Mary X-mass and Happy New Year.