Visit the new AsenaTv Website

https://asenatv.com

Alliances, Operational Strategy and Eritrean Movements for Justice

For any movement to succeed in its mission, it needs to stay one step ahead of its opponent; it needs to identify, develop, prioritize and execute strategic tactics of resistance based on full understanding of

For any movement to succeed in its mission, it needs to stay one step ahead of its opponent; it needs to identify, develop, prioritize and execute strategic tactics of resistance based on full understanding of the situation, the barriers and opportunities. Despite the fact that an absence of cohesive strategy still persist among Eritrean movements for justice, they are nevertheless cohered around the aim to eliminate dictatorship in Eritrea and to reshape Eritrea’s future in terms of justice, equality, freedom, education and economic development. To survive ferocious government onslaught, the majority of these movements are based in Ethiopia, an archrival of the Eritrean regime. However, choosing Ethiopia as a base is a cause for concern for some Eritreans mainly because they question Ethiopian intentions in helping Eritrean movements. As an alternative, they suggest the regime in Eritrea should only be removed through military coup d’état or peaceful mass protest, modeled after the Arab Spring, specifically that of Egypt. This alternative idea is commonly referred to as “change from the inside only” or “Eritrean solutions for Eritrean problems”.

It is imperative for one to be aware of other movements that succeeded in achieving their goals and to carefully analyze the course of action that led to their ultimate victory. Case and point was South Africa during apartheid period. The massacre of 69 unarmed protesters in Sharpeville, South Africa and the subsequent banning of the African National Congress (ANC) made it clear to Nelson Mandela that passive and non-violent struggle alone would not force the repressive regime to change. Therefore, in mid-1961 he founded the armed wing of ANC known as “Spear of the Nation”. Though, numerous laws were passed to severely restrict the legal and political arena which almost eliminated ANC’s structures and networks; it reinvigorated itself by setting up military bases in neighboring countries. ANC’s approach to fighting the apartheid government was an all-round struggle with four components known as “the four pillars of struggle”; armed movement, underground organization, mass mobilization and international solidarity. Similarly, for the Eritrean struggle for justice to succeed it necessitates the same approach and cohesion.

As the resistance escalated, ANC’s use of Mozambique as its base became a major contributor to its military successes as compared to that of Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC) whose base remained in South Africa facing government security forces head on. In the late 1980s, the mass revolt organized by underground organizations and intensification of the armed struggle enhanced mobilization of international condemnations of South Africa’s repressive regime. The moral legitimacy and necessity of carrying out an armed struggle was asserted in ANC’s manifesto as “The choice is not ours; it has been made by the Nationalist government.” The idea of moral legitimacy and necessity of armed struggle brings us back to Eritrea and raises the following question: What pillars of struggle Eritrean movements should have to effectively fight and defeat the regime in Asmara?

It is perhaps understandable why some Eritreans are fearful of Ethiopian government and suspect their southern neighbor having ulterior motives that are not beneficial to Eritreans after more than 30 years of war between the two nations and 15 years of feud that followed suit over their borders. However, these claims of ulterior motives have never been substantiated by evidence. The greatest fear most people who oppose Ethiopian support to Eritrean movements is that Ethiopia may forcefully replace the regime in Asmara by a puppet government that will allow Ethiopia to grab a huge chunk of Eritrean territory like the port of Assab. However, those critics fail to recognize that majority of Eritreans who fight for justice are doing so because they themselves refuse to be puppets of any regime in the first place. Furthermore, considering the current circumstances in Eritrea, Ethiopia would not need the help of Eritrean movements to occupy Assab if that was indeed its desire. The topic of baseless accusations that are directed at Eritrean movements and Ethiopian government has been extensively addressed by many Eritrean writers and politicians. Therefore, the focus of this article will be to highlight the importance of building geostrategic alliances with supportive governments as one of the pillars of struggle and a part of the operational strategy of Eritrean movements.

In the context of this article, a geostrategic alliance is an agreement between Eritrean movements and other states to deal with the political problems in Eritrea and pursuit of mutual benefits while keeping the independence of all parties involved. For Eritrean movements, these alliances are not instruments of convenience. They are critical tools for their success and a guarantee for their survival at a time where they are most vulnerable. All things considered, from all countries bordering Eritrea, the most suitable and worthwhile sanctuary for any Eritrean movement is Ethiopia. So far Ethiopia has opened its doors for all of these movements to freely operate within its territory and has provided limited financial and logistical support. In doing so, Ethiopian government has been clear about its goals and priorities when it comes to dealing with Eritrea; they know the PFDJ regime can’t be trusted again, they want a strong ally government on the north, and they want good economic cooperation between the two countries. For Eritreans, building alliances with Ethiopia and other countries present great benefits as well. Those benefits can be broadly categorized into pre and post the fall of PFDJ opportunities.

Presently, Eritrean movements can use Ethiopia to organize, plan, strengthen their military wing, conduct essential operations and avoid a more organized government force when needed. For example, ELF and EPLF used Sudan as a staging area from which they mounted several attacks and as an outlet for contact with the outside world for many years. Eritrean movements for justice are also in need of financial resources, arms and ammunitions, communications equipment, transportation, logistical supplies such as food and fuel that can be readily available and easily accessible from ally governments. In addition to Diaspora activities, friendly states can give Eritrean movements some political leverage.  The states with their diplomatic clout can push for recognition of a particular movement in the international arena while rejecting legitimacy of the dictatorial regime.  These states can also assist in brokering deals between different factions and put forward incentives to encourage integration of forces and establishment of stronger and more united front.

Without a doubt, PFDJ’s xenophobia and its attempts to gain unfair political and economic advantages over Eritrea’s neighboring countries has played a key role in escalation of hostilities in the region. Consequently, Eritrean movements share the responsibility of clearing mistrust that was spawned by PFDJ for over two decades. In post PFDJ Eritrea, depending on a number of variables, including healthy doses of economic and political ties between Eritrea and its neighbors will create prosperity in the region and avoid destructive competition that may otherwise arise between them. Therefore, Eritrean movements should take first steps to bridge the gap between Eritrea and neighboring countries and to educate the public about the short and long term opportunities of building geostrategic alliances with supportive states.

Additionally, disillusionment with previous wars and tireless PFDJ propaganda portraying Ethiopia as having ulterior motives has undeniably implanted isolationist mentality in some Eritreans. Although this mentality is common among PFDJ supporters, few anti-PFDJ Eritreans have not yet grown out of it, leading them to adopt slogans such as “change from the inside only” or “Eritrean solutions for Eritrean problems”. By adopting these slogans, they claim a desirable and authentic Eritrean solution to Eritrean problems can be achieved only if the people residing in Eritrea plan and remove the regime. Although, these slogans sound compelling, they often lack insight and are normally accompanied by ambiguous goals and trivial actions, which sometimes do more harm to the cause than good. Not only did they play a role in ideological divide between some organizations resulting in their breakup but also, people who adopt these slogans expect for a nonviolent movement to erupt in Eritrean towns ignoring the fact that a nation of less than four million is already housing more than 10,000 prisoners of conscience, the PFDJ is one of the most brutal regimes to exist in the 20th and 21st centuries, and peaceful demands made by some Eritreans has only resulted in disappearances of most of them. Additionally, most Eritreans who are between the ages of 16 and 45 have remained in the army as conscripts or fled the country leaving behind young children and the elderly. Given the circumstances in Eritrea, it would be highly unlikely for civilians to revolt peacefully. And in the unlikely event of a civilian revolt, the regime would not hesitate to use deadly force to crash it.

The other option for “change from the inside only” or “Eritrean solutions for Eritrean problems” ideologues is for a military coup d’état to take place in Eritrea. Although, it is possible for the Eritrean military to revolt and overthrow the regime, adopting this option as an independent and preferable solution is also problematic. First of all, any movement that claims to be fighting for justice should have plans and actions based on clear goals and objectives. Leaving the task of removing Eritrean regime to a military coup alone, which may or may not happen is an illogical strategy. Even if a military coup happens in the future, there is a great chance for it will be perpetrated by power hungry military officers seeking not to bring about structural regime change, but to rule the nation in their own way and without legitimacy. Therefore, the whole notion of “change from the inside only” or “Eritrean solutions for Eritrean problems” is based on fear of Ethiopian intentions, believing in trivial actions, doing awareness campaigns to teach those who are already living it, not understanding the nature of PFDJ fully, thinking that the outcome can be controlled merely because the event is carried out by people residing in Eritrea and most of all it is a strategy based on emotions, not careful evaluation of realities.

Rather than dismissing some methods of struggle first and then asking how to manage with what’s left, Eritrean movements must adopt an all-round struggle with leadership that is capable of analyzing internal and external factors to understand available options, capabilities, priorities and a leadership that is meticulous in setting goals and objectives in response to the demands of current situation – and only when these plans are executed appropriately will they achieve their goals. Each situation is to some extent, unique and must be treated as such. Nevertheless, making intelligent choices in consideration to current situation and future implications is always critical for success. Therefore, when a movement defines its pillars of struggle, a careful analysis should be conducted on how internal and external factors come into play. Some of these factors are history and nature of the regime, strengths and weaknesses of the regime, political situations in the country and in the region, people’s sentiment, population centers, economic conditions in the country, and the regime’s external ties. One obvious fact is that there is a large Eritrean population in Diaspora; hence, forming a social movement in Diaspora to unite Eritrean people around a common understanding and goals should be the first pillar. Since the regime’s obsession with excessive force leaves no room for peaceful marches, having armed resistance as second pillar is not only legitimate but essential. Eritreans inside the country can’t openly and freely organize themselves; hence creating underground networks with links to the military wing should be the third pillar. While, the fourth pillar should be alliance building for Eritrean movements to have access to neighboring countries from which their military wings operate and to get political and material support from other allies. A movement that succeeds in building these four pillars may be able to rally Diaspora Eritreans behind its goals. Whereas, its military wing in coordination with underground networks inside Eritrea may carryout surprise attacks on selected government targets leading to the movement’s recognition by the international community and support for its cause. After all, ANC’s model of struggle with some adjustments may be what Eritrean movements need to succeed in bringing about justice, democracy, economic prosperity and lasting peace.

“Let us train our minds to desire what the situation demands.”  – Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Tomas Solomon

These are my personal views and may not represent the views of others.

aseye.asena@gmail.com

Review overview
54 COMMENTS
  • tesfay July 21, 2013

    Dear Tomas,

    I found your article very intelligent and farseeing. The opposition in general should reflect deep into your insight and get the inspiration from your suggestions.

    I hope our compatroites who are shouting emotionaly “Bitsifrina” kind of slogan will reflect on the critical issues you brilliantly set forth.

    I also hope that your piece will influence other Young talent like yourself in the resistance movement.

    Keep it up,
    Tesfay

  • Dawit Meconen July 21, 2013

    tes,

    Tes,
    I can see your exposed raw nerve burning you so much that you are convulsing with pain. But that is not all; it will soon engulf your entire body.
    Let me ask you, what does the word “Ethiopia” mean ?……..Isn’t it a Greek word derivative, meaning sun burn’ face, which means, black? Yes, thats true.

    And yet those who profess themselves to be Ethiopians deny that they are black. But can a person be black and not black at the same time with the same respect? Absolutely, not.

    Then who can utter such contradictory claim? … only those who compensate their Inferiority Complex by means of deceit.

    But do all the people who are included under the name “Ethiopian” profess the utter contadictory claim? …….. Absolutely not.

    If they do not claim, then they do not suffer from Inferiority Complex and thus are genuine and proud people?…. that is the inference.

    Who then can be those who are free from inferiority complex, genuine and proudly declare themselves who they really are? …… Oromo, Somali to mention but a few.

    Therefore, the free and proud people, the Oromo, Somali etc., are not happy to be grouped with those who bear false names? …..Absolutely.

    Isn’t also true that the land of the free and proud is rich with natural resources, while that of the deceiful, the Amahara and Tegaru, is arid and barren?…. Absolutely.

    Isn’t then the inference is that the deceiful are using force and deceiful means to leech the natural wealth of the proud and free?…. That is absolutely true.

    How then do the deceitful procure the force necessary to rule over the free, genuine and proud?…..Because their land is arid and barren, like chameleon, they have developed the art of changing their colors to adapt to a new situation.One of these arts is Christianity, which, as we know, is the religion of the powerful Western Countries. The deceitful and poor, therefore, get their weapons from the Western Countries and through these weapons oppress the free, proud and genuine and leech their rich natural resources.

    But this kind of oppression cannot go indefinetely. Let alone this poor parasitic country, the Soviet Union did not last for ever through the power of a gun. Injustice always gives way to justice. Therefore, the demise of Ethiopia is unavoidable.

    Woyane has earned the wrath of Eritreans, Oromo, The Somali etc. and the pay back time is coming at a Geometric Progression. The worst losers will be the Tegaru. For that, I am hundred percent sure.

    • Tes July 21, 2013

      Professor Dawit,

      Who care about what Ethiopia means. It doesn’t concern me and in fact it is not my business. I don’t understand your opposition with Ethiopia and Woyane. You are consumed by evil jealousy i guess. Now you start against Amhara. I am sure you going to preach what Haleslasie did…

      Amhara , Tigrawy no one choose where and when to born. But we are all equal in the eye of God. There is no badge of honer for being this or that. You hate all Tigrawot. You are very weak person and you need help.

  • MightyEmbasoyra July 21, 2013

    I think if we don’t start saying a spade is a spade, there is no way we fix our problem. The way I see it, is in general we have kind of screwed up.
    We blame the dictator but we don’t seem to agree on solution to throw the criminal. Every other month or so, new organization shows up or split. What does this tell us. The opposition leaders are for the power grab rather than working for the suffered people. Some people blame the dictator but they don’t want to do the same to the generals. I believe they are as guilty as him.
    I think there are too many Politicians or political science majors. Where are the people with engineering, math (not like Gidewon), physicists that who can think out of the box? I know I am going to get many objections for this.
    The reason I admire NHE is that he has been sarcastic and want try to tell us that we are screwed. That’s it true, we are. What’s wrong with admitting that we are going backward?
    Let’s not just blame the dictator but include ourselves in the hall of shame for not fixing our miserable situation.

  • Sahle Yosieph July 21, 2013

    We have to accept the reality, change is not going to come from the top or from inside residents, if we are excepting from the army is not going to happen, but if it happen then the result will be like what we have know. After all the army are the one distorting the country Okay then what?

    • Zaul July 21, 2013

      The only credible help Ethiopia can offer at the moment is to accept the EEBc-ruling, after that, even diehard PFDJ-supporters will demand regime-change.

      What Ethiopia wants is a weak puppet government in Eritrea.

  • Sahle Yosieph July 21, 2013

    We have to accept the reality, change is not going to come from the top or from inside residents, if we are excepting from the army is not going to happen, but if it happen then the result will be like what we have now. After all the army are the one distorting the country. Okay then what?

  • aus 17 July 21, 2013

    You did it well at least a number of variables are very importantly menstioned. Ten years ago I wrote about the three sides of a triagle; the oppositions, the diaspora and the inside. The trice sides would have erected/hosted the flag up and straight. You add the forth namely the surrounding/neghbours/international community all very understandable!!!
    I hope our leaders/people grasp this reality and do something about it.

  • kemal Ali July 21, 2013

    Good job brother Thomas, very articulated and speared to the head. I like the flow of ideas and correlations of ideas and relationships on the ground.

  • Truly Truly i say to you July 21, 2013

    Well Tes in deed there is misunderstanding among us. First of all no one says Ethiopians should to spill blood and scared resource to liberate us. What we saying from our observation is, we seen them from their acts, let alone to spill blood or scared resources for us, contrarily what they doing is only weakening and creating divisions among oppositions by spying and by indirect involvement and giving instruction for certain oppositions. Additionally woyanee by giving more special support to Afar and Kunama separatists as they are encouraging to any serious Eritrean the secrit and motive is not hide, but did you ask self Tes, why specially more aid and encouragement for these separatists goes?
    Believe or not Woyanes more than any Ertrawi excellently understands Isayas as working mostly in favor of them by harming Eritrean and by instumentalizing the Eritrean suffer and interest, so why should you think woyane will consider Isayas as their enemy? and will have an interest by overthrown him? Like my Brother Dawit Mekonen genuinely many times pointed Isayas and Woyanes are two sides of the same coin brother Tes.
    Woyane when entered Addis Ababa they may gave recognition for Eritrean independence until they have strong power, but now the fact what they doing now is, it doesn´t approve that. If they be considered Isayas as common enemy, they should first to pull out of from our occupied territory first, and then after Isayas removal they be able in peaceful atmosphere continue to negotiate with new coming Eritrean government about what they calling it is our concern, actually to which is indeed also our concern.

  • Truly Truly i say to you July 21, 2013

    The other point that you must understand is, no one in his healthy mind says or will say, to use our neighbors as spring board that is including Ethiopia is false or sin . But if you clearly heard what Tegadalay Tesfay Temenewo said, in positive spirit to collaborate and seek help from Ethiopia, we were been there, but the fact from the ground what we seen and understood was different he said. Ethiopia above regarding its interest and weakening oppositions as doesn´t has another motive he clearly witnessed about. Many of opposition who were in Ethiopia they most agreed with Ato Tesfay assertion. finally no one with healthy mind from us will also say to go to Ethiopia is a crime. But what we are saying is as much as PFDJ regime supporting the Ethiopian oppositions, we didn´see Ethiopia when supporting enough to the aim for regime change, despite have strong capacity both militarily and financially, unless it be for those groups with separatist agenda. I hope you now understand our stand point now, why we strongly have reservation about Woyane stand.

    • Tes July 22, 2013

      Dear Truly,

      Well it is fine to have different observation bro. Woyane may have ulterior motive which is any nation obligation to look after its interest but the bottom line is we have to be alert all time and fight for our interest. What I don’t understand is to scare from the out set about Ethiopia’s intention. whether we like it or not we are going to live side by side so we have to face head on what ever motive they might have. It is not something to wait presume it will sort out itself. No it won’t and we can not excuse ourselves because of border issue. We have to dig in to PFDJ foundation to eradicated it first by using all means including accepting what ever help we can get from Ethiopia.

      about those separatist organization of kunama and afar are problems of our making. When they were crying for being marginalized, as people we failed to acknowledge ask them what their problem were. This is typical phenomenon in present day day Eritrea. Individual disappear no one dare to ask where he is. Some group hunted no one dare to ask for them. The land becomes a law less gangs paradise. Of course Ethiopian look for every crick to exploit. That is why I said we have to sort out ourselves and clean our house than blaming outsiders. This is my opinion i respect your opinion.

  • Temesgen Isaac July 23, 2013

    Great writing and thinking. alewuna alewana.

POST A COMMENT